Natural Gas

This weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,479 Bcf as of Friday, March 4, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 57 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 911 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 727 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,752 Bcf. At 2,479 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated Storage withdrawal between 55 Bcf and 59 Bcf

Vs

Actual 57 Bcf

Storage rocketing to end-of-season high Analysts are predicting yet another bearish withdrawal from gas in underground storage, which all but ensures stocks will peak at an alltime high when entering injection season later this month. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a gas storage withdrawal of between 55 Bcf and 59 Bcf for the reporting week that ended March 4 A withdrawal within expectations would be substantially less than the 174-Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and less than the 118-Bcf five-year average withdrawal, according to EIA data.

Ameren Gas customers have NOT benefited from the $37 Billion dollars that Illinois customers have saved since Illinois Customer Choice began. http://realgyenergyservices.com/competition-work-tune-37-billion/

However the Illinois Commerce Commission could decide that soon enough.

Every other utility in Illinois has implemented Illinois Customer Choice EXCEPT for Ameren Gas customers. Why is that? In a word, cost.

Ameren Gas said it would cost too much. Given the savings that could result, isn’t it worth it!

So the ICC has ceased taking comments and will decide what to do next.

Three possible scenarios are thought possible:

1. The proverbial; nothing.
2. Order Ameren Gas to implement Illinois Customer Choice and allow its customers to have a choice from the utility default service
3. Order a committee to study it further

Realgy support Illinois Customer Choice in that every gas customer should have a choice other than default service and share in the $37 billion in savings (and growing).

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://www.energychoicematters.com/stories/20160225c.html

Working gas in storage was 2,584 Bcf as of Friday, February 19, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 117 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 615 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 577 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,007 Bcf. At 2,584 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

EIA estimate 146 Bcf withdrawal

Vs

Actual 117 Bcf

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 144 Bcf and 148 Bcf for the reporting week that ended February 19. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EST (1530 GMT) Thursday. A withdrawal within expectations would be less than the 205 Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and in line with the 144 Bcf five-year average withdrawal, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week called for a withdrawal of 131 Bcf to 162 Bcf

If you recall President Nixon’s infamous quote…. I am reminded of it when WEC Energy denies any culpability in Peoples Gas ‘misinformation’ case.

As life goes in a circle, let’s recall the other adage of that time…follow the money, so lets.

In 2014              Illinois Commerce Commission approved $4,600,000,000 ($4.6 billion) for Peoples Gas to replace gas mains.

June 24, 2015  WEC Energy buys Peoples Gas for $9,100,000,000 ($9.1 billion)

July 7, 2015      Peoples Gas updates its estimate for gas main replacement to $8,200,000,000 ($8.2 billion)

So NO one in Peoples Gas was aware that the gas main replacement, the largest project Peoples has undertaking in some time, was costing X2 what it was approved to spend. Yet, about 2 weeks later they had detailed information of what those costs were and asked the ICC for approval to spend it.

The Attorney General’s Office is investigating Peoples Gas executives for what they knew and when they knew it……as I said the circle goes round and round.

Recall: Peoples as a regulated monopoly can only earn money when it spends on expenses approved by the ICC. If they are not approved by the ICC, Peoples gas runs the risk of having to have their investors pay for it.

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2016/02/22/wec-energy-denies-any-culpability-in-peoples-gas.html

So what happens when natural gas pricing decline into 1980 prices?

Well, of course you propose to use more….and nothing uses more natural gas than a BIG natural gas power plant.

A company is proposing to construct an 1,100-megawatt plant fueled by natural gas in Grundy County, about 50 miles southwest of Chicago, near Exelon’s existing Dresden nuclear plant. Enough for over 600,000 homes.

Natural gas power; in Illinois which has been dominated by coal and nuclear power plants. Coal plants require reinvestment to reduce emissions, the decision will either make an opening for such a new power plant or make a new competitor.

The proposed natural gas plant would compete in the wholesale market, where utilities and energy marketers buy power. More competition, will reduce the price of electricity and cleaner power is better for us all.

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160202/NEWS11/160209952/why-this-mammoth-new-plant-is-on-tap-despite-a-power-glut?utm_source=NEWS11&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=chicagobusiness

Not a political question; but why not?

Such a tax could provide funding for:

• new rail corridors
• highway projects
• pilot projects for self-driving cars
• other technologies it said fall under the goal of a “clean transportation” system

It’s interesting to consider this in light of:

1. the gasoline tax hasn’t increased in 25 years, during the Eisenhower era (the president on the “big” $1 coin)
2. Obama is not running for reelection (ever again)
3. technology is creating more changes in cars and the way they will be driven, ever
4. domestic oil production would NOT be taxed

Investment in the future of transportation is necessary, combining that with decreasing imported oil…(near) perfect!

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-to-propose-10-a-barrel-oil-tax-to-fund-rail-and-highway-projects/2016/02/04/49b3ec5c-cb7f-11e5-88ff-e2d1b4289c2f_story.html

“KNOWING MISLED.” ….this is like hearing from your kid’s teacher that homework wasn’t turned it on time because your house was flooded, and they were calling to check on you….. (you have to inform the teacher that no flooding occurred, but thanks for checking on us). So the teacher was misled.

Let’s recall; Regulators like the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) are responsible for ensuring that utilities, which are monopolies, spend and recover money ONLY for what is useful to provide their monopoly service. That is; expenditures by COMED that improve service, increase efficiency or improve services are approved while expenditures for mahogany desks, trips to Hawaii for a conference should not be asked for or approved. It is a mutual relationship, however, it becomes adversarial only when costs or misinformation is involved.

So, Peoples Gas received approval for improvements to their gas lines. HOWEVER, after the program was approved, Peoples Gas started to get reports back on the progress and cost of those improvements.

Guess what; it was costing more than they expected and taking longer…..they didn’t tell the ICC this. THIS IS REQUIRED by monopolies. The ICC requires monopolies to report back material changes; either good or bad. The ICC counts on the monopolies to be honest; after all they will recover the cost if they get it approved!

So now it’s adversarial; misleading a regulatory means the same thing as with your kid; they lose credibility (at least for a while) and EVERYTHING must now be proven.

The ICC needs to oversee Peoples Gas very closely. They are spending $$$$ Billions on this program and its costs will be recovered in their rates if approved. HOWEVER, if they misled or committed fraud then the utility shareholders will have to pay.

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/02/10/complaint-peoples-gas-officials-misled-regulators-about-cost-overruns/

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,934 Bcf as of Friday, January 29, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 152 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 490 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 445 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,489 Bcf. At 2,934 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Estimate 148 Bcf and 152 Bcf

Vs

Actual 152 Bdf

Gas demand fell across the nation last week as withdrawals likely decreased in all regions. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 148 Bcf and 152 Bcf for the reporting week that ended January 29. Warmer temperatures last week dropped demand in all ofEIA’s five storage regions. “Week-over-week, total US demand is estimated to have averaged more than 9 Bcf/d lower than the previous week with US level heating degree days totaling 43 less at 134,” said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst with Platts Bentek, an analytical division of Platts.

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 3,086 Bcf as of Friday, January 22, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 211 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 530 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 432 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,654 Bcf. At 3,086 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated between 204 and 208 Bcf.

Vs

Actual witdrawl 211 Bcf 

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal between 204 Bcf and 208 Bcf for the reporting week that ended January 22. EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EST Thursday. Withdrawal within expectations would be much more than the 112 Bcf drawdown reported at this time in 2015 and more than the 170 Bcf five year average withdrawal, according to EIA data. And for the third straight week, this looks to be the highest withdrawal of the heating season to date. It also would be the first of the season that is larger than both the withdrawal reported this week last year and the five-year average. The range of analysts’ expectations this week was narrow, calling for a withdrawal between 202 Bcf to 214 Bcf.