Natural Gas

Working gas in storage was 3,288 Bcf as of Friday, July 29, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 6 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 389 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 464 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,824 Bcf. At 3,288 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated injection 1Bcf.

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Actual withdrawal 6Bcf.

The NYMEX September natural gas futures contract jumped 10.6 cents Wednesday to settle at $2.839/MMBtu, boosted by expectations of an atypically small injection into US natural gas storage in the latest reporting week – or possibly even an historic summer withdrawal. “The contract is up because a storage withdrawal is possible, which would make it the third summer draw in history,” said Kyle Cooper, analyst/principal, IAF Advisors. The consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts is for an injection of 1 Bcf into underground storage that week, but analysts’ estimates in the survey ranged from a withdrawal of 4 Bcf to an injection of 5 Bcf. The consensus estimate of 1 Bcf would be much less than the 41-Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 and well below the fiveyear average of 54 Bcf, according to EIA data. A below-average build would mark the 13th consecutive week the injection was less than the historical average. It would also be a new record low for this time of year.

Working gas in storage was 3,103 Bcf as of Friday, June 17, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 62 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 618 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 678 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,425 Bcf. At 3,103 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated 61 Bcf

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Actual 62 Bcf 

Analysts expect another below-average weekly injection to gas in storage as the NYMEX front-month natural gas futures contract gained ground early this week to reach its highest price in 10 months. The US Energy Information Administration will estimate an injection of 61 Bcf to natural gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended June 17, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts.  The expected injection would be less than the 77 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 and much less than the five-year average calling for a build of 88 Bcf, according to EIA data. The below-average build would mark the seventh consecutive week the injection was less than the historical average and would continue to chip away at the storage surplus.

If you have been downtown lately, you have noticed many roads ripped up with Peoples Gas trucks nearby.

This is part of what was a $4.5 Billion dollar pipeline replacement that has grown to $8.0 Billion.

Why is this relevant?

Peoples Gas was sold to Wisconsin based WEC group prior to the disclosure of this 100% cost overrun. DO you think Peoples was sold to WEC Group to continue a $4.5 Billion dollar project or a $8.0 Billion dollar project? The difference would generate about $350,000,000 (350 Million) each year in revenue for the next 25 years.  

Again, Peoples Gas is a regulated monopoly. It has no competition to supply natural gas. So, it paid a fine of $18 million to receive $3.5 Billion more to spend.

Let’s see that’s less than 1% penalty.

Surely Peoples will learn their lesson not to withhold information from the regulators when they receive such a stiff penalty as that!

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM Index, Fixed and PriceAssurance^TM.

Additional Information:

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160510/NEWS11/160519980/peoples-gas-madigan-settle-claims-of-misleading-regulators-for-18-5

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,825 Bcf as of Friday, May 20, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 71 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 756 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 769 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,056 Bcf. At 2,825 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated Injection 68 Bcf

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Actual Injection 71 Bcf

Analysts predict build below 5-year average

A lower-than-average injection is anticipated for the third consecutive week, further reducing the surplus to the five-year average. The US Energy Information Administration will estimate an injection of 68 Bcf to gas in storage for the reporting week that ended May 20 according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT (1530 GMT) Thursday. The expected injection would be much less than the 106-Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 and less than the five-year average of a 97-Bcf build, according to EIA data.

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,754 Bcf as of Friday, May 13, 2016, according to EIA estimates.  This represents a net increase of 73 Bcf from the previous week.  Stocks were 791 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 795 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,959 Bcf.  At 2,754 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated 79 Bcf
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Actual 73 Bcf

The US Energy Information Administration will estimate an injection of 79 Bcf to natural gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended May 13, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts.  An injection within expectations would be less than the 98-Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 and also less than the five-year average of a 91-Bcf build, according to EIA data.  This would also mark the second consecutive week of a below-average injection. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week was narrow, calling for an injection of 77 Bcf to 83 Bcf.  An injection within analysts’ expectations of 79 Bcf would grow stocks to 2.760 Tcf, 801 Bcf more than the five-year average and 797 Bcf more than the corresponding week last year.  The below-average build would help reduce the current surplus to the five-year average and to last year’s level by 12 Bcf and 19 Bcf, respectively.

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,557 Bcf as of Friday, April 22, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 73 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 870 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 832 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,725 Bcf. At 2,557 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range

Estimated 70 Bcf.

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Actual 73 Bcf.

After two weeks of the US Energy Information Administration’s gas storage estimates coming in well below the five-year average injection, analysts expect the next one to be the biggest build of the year. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects that EIA will estimate an injection of 70 Bcf to gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended April 22.The agency plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT (15:30 GMT) Thursday. An injection within expectations would be less than the 84 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 but more than the five-year average of a 52 Bcf build, according to EIA data. Predictions were all over the board as the wider range of analysts’ expectations called for an injection of 55 Bcf to 81 Bcf. An injection within analysts’ expectations of 70 Bcf would grow stocks to 2.554 Tcf, a surplus of 829 Bcf relative to the five-year average. It would be the biggest build since an 81 Bcf injection was posted for the week ended October 16. The expected injection marks the first week of the year when a build is expected to have occurred in all five of the EIA’s storage regions.

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report. Working gas in storage was 2,484 Bcf as of Friday, April 15, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 7 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 881 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 811 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,673 Bcf. At 2,484 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

EIA estimate storage injection of 2 Bcf
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Actual injections 7 Bcf

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate an injection of 2 Bcf to natural gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended April 15. EIA is scheduled to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT (1530 GMT) Thursday. An injection within expectations would be much less than the 82 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 and less than the five-year average of a 45 Bcf injection, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week called for a withdrawal of 2 Bcf to an injection of 8 Bcf. Last week, EIA reported a 3 Bcf withdrawal that decreased inventories to 2.477 Tcf, which was 62.9% more than the year-ago inventory of 1.472 Tcf, and 52.1% more than the five-year average of 1.628 Tcf.

When a monopoly (energy Utility) wants to spend money, it normally follows a three step process:

1. Submit details of cost expenditures and the corresponding consumer benefits
2. Get approval from the state regulator; this requires public hearings
3. After the monies were spent on what was approved, demonstrate the benefits were delivered

Think about that; the utility makes the case to spend money offering benefits such as improved reliability (less costs on emergency repairs) or lower costs of operation. Then once completed, the benefits must come; otherwise, they don’t get to recover their costs.

The utilities have to make reasonable and prudent recommendations. The regulators must carefully consider the costs and benefits. Once approved, the utilities must get the construction installed at the price quoted. After it’s constructed the utility must demonstrate the benefits.

Any short cut to this process and more than likely the consumer pays for it.

Many utilities (and utility regulators) are realizing that much of the installed pipelines are approaching their end of life. This will require digging them up and replacing them. Very expensive. So utilities and their regulators are proposing ways to reduce these costs.

However, regulators should not reduce their oversight. Too often lapses in regulatory oversight leads to costs overruns and shortcuts which all but eliminate benefits to consumers.

The following article is a great example of how a monopoly gas utility in Kansas and their regulators are dealing with it. It is very representative of the process occurring in every state.

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://cjonline.com/news/business/2016-04-02/kcc-considering-accelerated-gas-pipeline-replacement-program

Working gas in storage was 2,468 Bcf as of Friday, March 25, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 25 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 1,002 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 843 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,625 Bcf. At 2,468 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated withdrawal is between 20 Bcf and 24 Bcf

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Actual withdrawal 25 Bcf

Analysts predict net withdrawal while this week’s storage report is expected to be a reversal from last, as a net withdrawal is the expectation of analysts for the week ended March 25. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects that the EIA will estimate a withdrawal of between 20 Bcf and 24 Bcf for the reporting week that ended March 25. A withdrawal within expectations would be more than the 10 Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and directly in line with the 22 Bcf five-year average pull, according to EIA data. A withdrawal of more than 22 Bcf would mark only the second time this year that the pull was larger than both the five-year average and last year’s withdrawal in the corresponding week. The last time it occurred was for the week that ended January 22