Natural gas surges 14% as cold snap ahead is expected to boost demand
US natural gas futures surged 14% in early January 2022. This is on top of recent increases beginning in the fall of last year. In early October into November 2021 oil and natural gas prices surged.
Natural gas is a commodity purchased from suppliers (including utilities) at published prices. Typically, the price referenced is the NYMEX. All natural gas suppliers are impacted by the same cost increase. However, some suppliers such as utilities can delay the impact due to their regulatory price recovery. This can be understood when utilities do not share storage with their third-party suppliers. Natural gas in storage will not increase when the market price does. Those utilities can appear to have a lower price when in fact they just bought the gas during the summer and stored it. Michigan utilities operate like this; they do not provide their customer choosing a gas supplier with their share of storage volume. Therefore, the energy suppliers in Michigan cannot readily offer storage to their customer. Illinois utilities share their storage volumes equally between choice and tariff customers. Therefore, Illinois customer choice customers have nearly 20% of their winter gas purchased during the summer. Realgy calls this our Storage Program see Storage – Realgy Energy Services.
Natural gas pricing was not expected to rise significantly. However, Covid, weather, and consumer behaviors changed that forecast.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM Index, Fixed and PriceAssuranceTM.
Realgy owns and operates 7 solar plants in Illinois and is looking to invest in additional locations. Currently we are in construction of our 8th project with the park district of Highland Park.
Additional Information:
How Will the Natural Gas Shortage Impact Fuel Dealers and Homeowners? – OILMAN Magazine
Natural gas surges 14% as cold snap ahead is expected to boost demand (cnbc.com)
Ameren Illinois, Nicor Gas customers should expect higher heating bills this winter
U.S. homeowners will see heating prices increase by as much as 54% according to the EIA. Ameren and Nicor are already warning Illinois customers to expect 30% higher bills. High demand, low supply, weather impacts, and natural gas inflation are forecast to cause commodity pricing to be the most expensive it’s been since 2008.
The utilities expect their cost to be 75% higher per therm this winter. If we have a milder winter, pricing impact should be lower. However, there are various ways to assist customers such as purchasing gas when it’s cheaper in the summer, energy savings tips, and payment and budget plans.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM Index, Fixed and PriceAssuranceTM.
Realgy owns and operates 7 solar plants in Illinois and is looking to invest in additional locations.
Additional Information: https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/local-news/ameren-illinois-nicor-gas-customers-should-expect-higher-heating-bills-this-winter/
Natural gas spikes during winter storm and regulatory commission wont require disclosure of pricing
The Polar Vortex of February 2021 sparked numerous lawsuits and multiple investigations at nearly every Government level. Consider Kansas.
The Kansas Attorney General is investigating the price spike and looking to enforce the states prohibition against anti-profiteering law.
However, the Kansas Corporation Commission (oversees regulatory matters) denied two motions of the anti-profiteering investigation.
Consider this statement from an oversight commission whose job includes ensuring open and fair price disclosure.
The commission said the consumer coalition “has not demonstrated that disclosure will benefit the public interest,” and release of the proprietary information has “great potential to harm current and future Kansas natural gas customers through higher purchased gas costs. A general argument in favor of transparency cannot outweigh this very real harm to customers.”
Yes, the commission responsible for regulatory oversight has said disclosure of pricing during the polar vortex COULD HARM customers. Mind you, the pricing has already been paid and this request is to see what contributed to the higher prices.
The principal role of a utility oversight board is to investigate pricing. Kansas Corporation Commission appears to stand alone in not wanting disclosure.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM Index, Fixed and PriceAssuranceTM.
Realgy owns and operates 7 solar plants in Illinois and is looking to invest in additional locations.
Additional Information: Kansas AG says winter storm natural gas prices appear illegal (salina.com)
Illinois Shines
With the rise of solar usage, incentives are more available now and many are implemented through state programs. Illinois Shines was created by the Illinois Power Agency (IPA) to support developments for distributed solar generation and community solar. Monitored in accordance with the Future Energy Jobs Act, the IPA purchases Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) from community solar projects and sets costs through the Adjustable Block Program known as Illinois Shines.
Community solar benefits areas that cannot install rooftop arrays due to limited space, high costs, and issues with zoning laws. Illinois Shines increases solar access for residents that may not easily receive green energy while also providing information and inspections for vendors to become approved.
Illinois Shines’ evaluation of Realgy Energy Service’s solar arrays at Ridgeland Recreation Complex recently concluded. They state Realgy’s project is in compliance with program guidelines. We are proud to serve the Illinois community and help the state meet its renewable energy goals.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM Index, Fixed and PriceAssuranceTM.
Realgy owns and operates 7 solar plants in Illinois and is looking to invest in additional locations.
Additional Information: https://illinoisshines.com/
$8.3 Billion Proposal for Addressing Texas Blackouts
Berkshire Hathaway is a public company that owns several utilities. Their proposal illustrates the difference between a company taking risks versus a utility.
Berkshire is proposing the Texas Grid operator (utility oversight company) build a gas-fired power plant that would be weather normalized and fixed to support a large portion of Texas’ energy demands. Berkshire is proposing to spend $8.3 billion to build this plant.
The cost: Berkshire would earn what a Texas utility earns on investments which is 9.3%.
So, Berkshire like any utility in Texas that receives regulatory approval, earns a return regardless of whether what they build works.
Berkshire as a public company takes risks building and operating businesses such as Dairy Queen, Burlington Northern Railroad, or Sherwin-Williams. Any investment in these businesses comes with no guaranteed return.
EVERY utility makes money by spending money to provide service. The Texas Grid operator will undoubtedly not accept this proposal but, it does show the difference between private businesses and utilities.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM Index, Fixed and PriceAssuranceTM.
Realgy owns and operates 7 solar plants in Illinois and is looking to invest in additional locations.
Additional Information: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/buffett-s-berkshire-floats-8-3-billion-fix-for-texas-grid/ar-BB1eXRHl?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds
Gas and electric prices soar; billing impacts, utility pricing to increase, investigations begin
Weather always impacts energy markets. Massive weather changes impact National energy markets.
The latest Polar Vortex of February 2021 covered nearly 2/3 of North America. The result in the energy markets was immediate. Customers used more energy to stay warm. Utilities demanded more energy to meet demand. Pipelines and electric lines had massive draws.
Prices increased. However, electric generation could not respond as some weren’t winterized and couldn’t start. Gas pipelines originating from Texas and Oklahoma restricted gas supply leaving those states. This resulted in gas pipelines not delivering the request for more gas.
Prices soared, utilities and gas pipelines declared the results of the polar vortex as an unforeseeable circumstance or force majeure. THIS ALLOWED them to make demands and pass-through costs without restraint.
Realgy DOES NOT benefit from any of these events. OUR COSTS to pipelines and utilities went up nearly 10 times. These costs are just passed through. IT’S PAINFUL for us and you, we understand that.
So, energy suppliers feel the costs first. Realgy has to pay our pipeline and supplier for February 2021 gas and delivery already. It’s 10 times what we planned, we had to borrow money to pay these energy costs.
Utilities have seen these costs and will pass them through to their utility supply (gas and electric) over the coming months.
The impact of the February 2021 Polar Vortex:
Yes, every energy supplier marketer/utility suffered higher costs. Yes, every marketer/utility will recover these costs. Yes, utility rates will go up to collect these purchases.
Realgy is doing everything possible to recover only the costs associated with the pipelines and utilities declaring the force majeure. We will offer relief to our customers to help.
Here is a typical reply from utilities:
“Over the last two weeks due to the extreme cold and the incredible demand on the system due to the wintry weather across the nation including Texas, we had to go to market to meet demand above our base plan and we did see higher prices due to the extreme cold that extended into Texas and impacted gas supply.” Sandstrom added he does not know yet what the customer billing impact is going to be but will be working with their regulators to help mitigate impacts to customers. “I also want to clarify that we don’t profit from higher natural gas prices, we are just a distributor and our commodity costs essentially get passed through to our customers. We definitely saw a price spike in the commodity costs for a few days, but bills will tend to be higher regardless as customers used more gas to heat their homes during the polar vortex.”
The investigations are beginning:
State level:
In a letter sent Saturday to federal regulators, Smith said the price spikes will not harm just consumers but, could “threaten the financial stability of some utilities that do not have sufficient cash reserves to cover their short-term costs in this extraordinary event.” The letter was sent to the Energy Department, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. A copy of the letter was obtained by The Associated Press.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) announced today that its Office of Enforcement is examining wholesale natural gas and electricity market activity during last week’s extreme cold weather to determine if any market participants engaged in market manipulation or other violations.
If the Office of Enforcement finds any potential wrongdoing that can be addressed under FERC’s statutory authority, it will pursue those matters as non-public investigations.
Federal level:
FERC explained that this examination will take place as part of the Division of Analytics and Surveillance’s (DAS) ongoing surveillance of market participant behavior in the wholesale natural gas and electricity markets. The Division uses market participant-level trading data and data from the financial markets to screen daily and monthly trading at the majority of physical and financial natural gas trading hubs in the US and the organized and bilateral wholesale electricity markets. DAS closely identifies and scrutinizes any potentially anticompetitive or manipulative behavior to determine if an investigation is appropriate.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM Index, Fixed and PriceAssuranceTM.
Realgy owns and operates 7 solar plants in Illinois and is looking to invest in additional locations.
Additional Information:
https://www.wdio.com/duluth-minnesota-news/natural-gas-utlities-price-spike-impact/6022819/
https://news.wttw.com/2021/02/20/senator-seeks-probe-natural-gas-price-spikes-during-storm
Brutal Cold grips central United States
Temperatures have dropped more than 40° below the average.
Power costs have soared from $4 / MWh to over $600 / MWh.
Most of the news we are seeing is coming from Texas for several reasons:
- Well, it is really cold; well below freezing for nearly 5 days.
- Texas is a power island. They have no connections outside of Texas so, other states cannot supply power for them.
- Texas’ energy infrastructure is not built for freezing temperatures. This results in water main breaks, gas pipes freezing, and power equipment not operating properly.
Outside of Texas the Polar Vortex will have economic impact but, electricity and gas are generally staying on.
If your power or heat is interrupted, CALL your local utility.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, ManagedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM Index, Fixed and PriceAssuranceTM.
Realgy owns and operates 7 solar plants in Illinois and is looking to invest in additional locations.
Additional Information: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/16/us/winter-storm-texas-power-outage-map.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage