DOE EIA Weekly Gas Storage Report 10/19/15
Working gas in storage was 3,733 Bcf as of Friday, October 9, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 100 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 447 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 168 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,565 Bcf.
EIA estimates 91-95 Bcf
vs
Actual inject was 100 Bcf
An injection within expectations would be less than the 96-Bcf build reported at this time in 2014 but more than the 87-Bcf five-year average increase, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week was for an injection of 77 Bcf to 104 Bcf. Last week, the EIA reported a 95-Bcf injection that increased inventories to 3.633 Tcf, which was 443 Bcf, or 13.9%, more than the year-ago inventory of 3.19 Tcf, and 155 Bcf, or 4.5%, more than the five-year average of 3.48 Tcf. “Demand picked up slightly, mostly due to increased heating load as temperatures are starting to decline on seasonal trends,” said Bentek Energy, a unit of Platts. “The increased heating demand was met with lower power burn demand. However, power-burn demand trended higher as the week progressed after starting … the week at relatively weak levels, and set a new single-day high for the month of October late in the storage week.” Greater demand decreased injection activity 24% week over week in the East Region, Bentek said. “This was partially offset by stronger injection activity within Bentek’s sample of facilities in both the Producing Region and the West,” Bentek said. FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King said that despite above-average temperatures during the reporting week, temperatures were cooler in the East, causing some “noticeable overnight heating loads.”
20 Years of Customer Choice: Savings of 19%
Do you remember what you were doing 20 years ago? That’s how long ago many customer choice programs have been around.
Customer Choice is approved by a state and offered by a utility as an alternative to a utilities’ default service. By choosing a customer choice program, you are in fact, choosing only to buy direct wholesale power without ANY utility cost applied. The utility continues to provide all their traditional services such as billing, meter reading, emergency response, etc. So, the only reason to choose a customer choice offer is to provide savings compared to the utility default service. Energy marketers, those approved by the state and local utilities, contact with customer directly to serve them the wholesale power.
So after 20 years how does customer choice compare to utility default service. How does 19% sound?
That’s right. Utilities with only default service were 19% higher than utilities with customer choice over the last 20 years.
Many detractors have tried to make arguments that customer choice wouldn’t work by suggesting subsidies, not enough power is available, it would weaken the utility, loss of jobs, etc. However, this study, and others like it, have demonstrated that a customer choice program offers energy consumers a viable option other than default service by the utility. Energy marketers, in turn, purchase energy in the wholesale market (improving utilization of existing power plants), delivery it through the utility (increasing their revenues) and saving residents money (retain local jobs as business don’t move to chase lower energy costs).
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, MangedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM and Index, Fixed pricing.
Additional information: www.realgyenergyservices.com
Supporting Article:
Weekly Basis Report 09/16/15
If you look at the chart below, you will see a lot of volatility in the short run and continuing all the to March and April 2016. This is more or less due to uncertainty in the market place where financial basis markets were mixed with Northeast prompt-month basis prices moving higher, while months further along the curve mostly fell. The NYMEX October natural gas futures contract fell 5.9 cents to settle at $2.651/MMBtu on expectations of a bearish weekly natural gas storage report.
DOE EIA Weekly Gas Storage Report 9/10/15
Working gas in storage was 3,261 Bcf as of Friday, September 4, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 68 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 473 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 127 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,134 Bcf.
EIA estimated 72-76 Bcf
vs
Actual Injection 68 Bcf
A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday will estimate a natural gas storage injection of between 72 Bcf and 76 Bcf for the reporting week that ended September 4. A build within expectations would be less than the 90 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2014 but more than the 63 Bcf five-year average increase, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week was for an injection of 69 Bcf to 81 Bcf. “Injection activity fell compared to the previous week within the East and Producing regions, as demand picked up on higher temperatures,” said Platts unit Bentek Energy in its Weekly Storage Report. Power demand rose by more than 1.6 Bcf/d compared with the previous week, Bentek said, mostly in the East Region. Most storage facilities reported smaller injections across the Midwest and Northeast.
DOE EIA Weekly Gas Storage Report
Working gas in storage was 3,193 Bcf as of Friday, August 28, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 94 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 495 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 122 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,071 Bcf
EIA to estimate 83-87 Bcf
Actual 94 Bcf
An injection within that range would be more than the 79-Bcf build reported in the comparable week of 2014 and the 60-Bcf five year-average increase, EIA data showed. Discussing the possible effect of a high injection number Thursday, Santiago Diaz, broker at INTL FC Stone, said “if the large injection trend continues, it will translate towards more downward pressure on prices.” It is not unusual for natural gas storage injections to reach this size, but what is unusual is how early large injections are arriving. “With the third week of September traditionally marking the low point in the season for weather-related demand, this pattern change appears to be running close to schedule”
Weekly Basis Report
Here is the weekly basis report which is representing the future price change when trading natural gas, the quoted price is the difference between the Henry Hub price and a specific location’s price – called the basis price. A basis position is one that has exposure to two different locations: the Henry Hub and separate location’s price.
Here are some basic understanding on how to measure natural gas:
A BTU is the amount of heat required to increase the temperature of a pint of water (which weighs exactly 16 ounces) by one degree Fahrenheit.
Since BTUs are measurements of energy consumption, they can be converted directly to kilowatt-hours (3412 BTUs = 1 kWh) or joules (1 BTU = 1,055.06 joules).
MBTU stands for one million BTUs, which can also be expressed as one decatherm (10 therms). MBTU is occasionally used as a standard unit of measurement for natural gas, and provides a convenient basis for comparing the energy content of various grades of natural gas and other fuels.
One cubic foot of natural gas produces approximately 1,000 BTUs, so 1,000 cu.ft. of gas are comparable to 1 MBTU.
MBTU is occasionally expressed as MMBTU, which is intended to represent a thousand thousand BTUs
Cogeneration is not Deregulation
Indiana is in the midst of trying to address its high cost of electricity. Two trade associations are facing off; the industrial trade association wants to be able to build cogeneration plants (very efficient plants that produce electricity and heat) while the utility trade association doesn’t want competition on other energy sources. Both trade associations miss the evolution of energy deregulation.
Energy deregulation started during the oil crisis (late 1970s early 80s) and initially the “deregulation” manifested as competition on constructing new power plants. That is: before a utility could build a new power plant, it had to put out to bid what it was going to build and the price and see if others could build it for less and with different fuels.
The second phase of energy deregulation occurred with energy supply to customers (natural gas and electricity). First came large energy users followed over time by residential consumers. During this phase of energy deregulation, the utility became a delivery company and the energy supply (natural gas or electricity) could be purchased from the utility or other energy suppliers.
A review of the facts of energy deregulation over the last 30+ years illustrates:
- The utility model of regulated competition has been demonstrated to cost more than direct competition.
- Power plants should be sited to allow for the efficient use of its output (both the heat and the electricity)
- Customer should be allowed to choose their energy supply. Competition for retail customers in energy supply has demonstrated lower costs, improved efficiency and greater service options.
- Utilities should continue to operate their monopoly on energy delivery
Hopefully, the Indiana legislators review the history and benefits from energy deregulation.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed SavingsTM, MangedPriceTM, ManagedGreenTM and Index, Fixed pricing.
Additional information: www.realgyenergyservices.com
Supporting Article:
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working gas in storage was 3,099 Bcf as of Friday, August 21, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 69 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 480 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 88 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,011 Bcf.
EIA estimate 58-62 Bcf
Actual 69
A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday will estimate a natural gas storage injection of between 58 Bcf and 62 Bcf for the reporting week that ended August 21. An injection within expectations would be less than the 77-Bcf injection reported at this time in 2014 and similar to the 61-Bcf five-year average injection, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week was for an injection of 47 Bcf to 67 Bcf. “US demand rose modestly from the previous week and averaged just above 64.5 Bcf/d during the week,” said Bentek Energy, an analytics and forecasting unit of Platts. “However, this did not translate to lower injection activity, as Bentek’s sample injections increased within both the East and Producing regions compared to the previous week.”
Chicago Weekly Basis Report
Here is exert from a finance book about Derivatives securities which correlates to the basis market because it can generate a higher rate of returns in the future.
Derivative securities (also called derivatives) are financial contracts whose values are derived from the values of underlying financial assets (such as securities). Each derivative security’s value tends to be related to the value of the underlying security in a manner that is understood by firms and investors. Consequently, derivative securities allow firms and investors to take positions in the securities on the basis of their expectations of movements in the underlying financial assets. In particular, investors commonly speculate on expected movements in the value of the underlying financial asset without having to purchase the financial asset. In many cases, a speculative investment in the derivative position can generate a much higher return than the same investment in the underlying financial asset. However, such an investment will also result in a much higher level of risk for the investors. Derivative securities are used not only to take speculative positions but also to hedge, or reduce exposure to risk. For example, firms that are adversely affected by interest rate movements can take a particular position in derivative securities that can offset the effects of interest rate movements. By reducing a firm’s exposure to some external force, derivative securities can reduce its risk
Realgy supports fair competition and is passing along the Deceptive Practices Warning from SEMCO
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Media Contact: Timothy Lubbers
Director of Business Development
Phone: 810-887-4208
SEMCO ENERGY WARNS OF POSSIBLE DECEPTIVE NATURAL GAS TELEMARKETING; CUSTOMERS ADVISED TO GUARD PERSONAL AND ACCOUNT INFORMATION OVER THE PHONE
PORT HURON, MI, July 07, 2015 – SEMCO ENERGY GAS COMPANY is alerting customers of possible deceptive telemarketing tactics targeting natural gas customers in the SEMCO ENERGY service areas.
The Gas Company has received numerous complaints of customers being called by people claiming to be with SEMCO ENERGY, offering to put them on a special rate and asking for personal information including the customer’s account number.
SEMCO ENERGY does not telemarket customers and ask for account information. Customers are advised to be mindful about sharing personal information, including natural gas account information that they provide in telephone or door to door solicitations. If you have questions about being contacted by someone claiming to represent SEMCO ENERGY, please call 1-800-624-2019 or e-mail customer.service@semcoenergy.com. All SEMCO ENERGY field personnel carry SEMCO ENERGY photo identification.
SEMCO ENERGY customers have the option to buy their natural gas from an alternative gas supplier, however, SEMCO ENERGY does not solicit customers to sign up for the Gas Customer Choice program. The Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) provides a list of all alternative gas suppliers licensed in Michigan on the MPSC web site: http://michigan.gov/mpsc/0,4639,7-159-16385_17144—,00.html. The site includes information about the gas customer choice program and a section showing authorized alternative gas suppliers active in SEMCO ENERGY service areas.
If you would like to lodge a complaint about an alternative gas supplier or their marketing practices, please contact the Michigan Public Service Commission at 1-800-292-9555.
Information about the Gas Customer Choice Program and alternative gas suppliers, including suggested questions to consider when selecting an alternative supplier, is also available on the SEMCO ENERGY GAS COMPANY web site, www.semcoenergygas.com. Just click on Natural Gas Customer Choice Program to the left.
SEMCO ENERGY Gas Company, headquartered in Port Huron, Michigan, is a regulated public utility that delivers natural gas to approximately 293,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers in Michigan. Service territories include portions of the southern half of the state’s Lower Peninsula (including in and around the cities of Albion, Battle Creek, Holland, Niles, Port Huron and Three Rivers) and in the central, eastern and western parts of the state’s Upper Peninsula.
Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Additional information: www.realgyenergyservices.com