Natural Gas

“KNOWING MISLED.” ….this is like hearing from your kid’s teacher that homework wasn’t turned it on time because your house was flooded, and they were calling to check on you….. (you have to inform the teacher that no flooding occurred, but thanks for checking on us). So the teacher was misled.

Let’s recall; Regulators like the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) are responsible for ensuring that utilities, which are monopolies, spend and recover money ONLY for what is useful to provide their monopoly service. That is; expenditures by COMED that improve service, increase efficiency or improve services are approved while expenditures for mahogany desks, trips to Hawaii for a conference should not be asked for or approved. It is a mutual relationship, however, it becomes adversarial only when costs or misinformation is involved.

So, Peoples Gas received approval for improvements to their gas lines. HOWEVER, after the program was approved, Peoples Gas started to get reports back on the progress and cost of those improvements.

Guess what; it was costing more than they expected and taking longer…..they didn’t tell the ICC this. THIS IS REQUIRED by monopolies. The ICC requires monopolies to report back material changes; either good or bad. The ICC counts on the monopolies to be honest; after all they will recover the cost if they get it approved!

So now it’s adversarial; misleading a regulatory means the same thing as with your kid; they lose credibility (at least for a while) and EVERYTHING must now be proven.

The ICC needs to oversee Peoples Gas very closely. They are spending $$$$ Billions on this program and its costs will be recovered in their rates if approved. HOWEVER, if they misled or committed fraud then the utility shareholders will have to pay.

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/02/10/complaint-peoples-gas-officials-misled-regulators-about-cost-overruns/

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,934 Bcf as of Friday, January 29, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 152 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 490 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 445 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,489 Bcf. At 2,934 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Estimate 148 Bcf and 152 Bcf

Vs

Actual 152 Bdf

Gas demand fell across the nation last week as withdrawals likely decreased in all regions. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 148 Bcf and 152 Bcf for the reporting week that ended January 29. Warmer temperatures last week dropped demand in all ofEIA’s five storage regions. “Week-over-week, total US demand is estimated to have averaged more than 9 Bcf/d lower than the previous week with US level heating degree days totaling 43 less at 134,” said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst with Platts Bentek, an analytical division of Platts.

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 3,086 Bcf as of Friday, January 22, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 211 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 530 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 432 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,654 Bcf. At 3,086 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated between 204 and 208 Bcf.

Vs

Actual witdrawl 211 Bcf 

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal between 204 Bcf and 208 Bcf for the reporting week that ended January 22. EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EST Thursday. Withdrawal within expectations would be much more than the 112 Bcf drawdown reported at this time in 2015 and more than the 170 Bcf five year average withdrawal, according to EIA data. And for the third straight week, this looks to be the highest withdrawal of the heating season to date. It also would be the first of the season that is larger than both the withdrawal reported this week last year and the five-year average. The range of analysts’ expectations this week was narrow, calling for a withdrawal between 202 Bcf to 214 Bcf.

Working gas in storage was 3,297 Bcf as of Friday, January 15, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 178 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 629 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 473 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,824 Bcf. At 3,297 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

EIA Estimated withdrawal  183 Bcf.

Vs

Actual withdrawal 178 Bcf.

EIA to estimate season’s largest draw Increased demand last week in the Midwest and South Central regions prompted energy experts to predict last week’s natural gas storage withdrawals will be the largest so far of the heating season. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday will estimate a gas storage withdrawal of between 183 Bcf and 187 Bcf for the reporting week that ended January 15.  A withdrawal within expectations would be less than the 220-Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and more than the 177-Bcf fiveyear average withdrawal, according to EIA data. There was not much disparity in the predictions this week as the full range of analysts’ expectations all fell between a drawdown of 175 Bcf to 191 Bcf. This looks to be the largest withdrawal of the heating season, and the first withdrawal that is more than the five-year average since the week that ended December 4. However, it would still be 35 Bcf less than the withdrawal at this time last year.

Working gas in storage was 3,475 Bcf as of Friday, January 8, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 168 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 587 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 474 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,001 Bcf. At 3,475 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated Withdrawal 176 Bcf and 180 Bcf

Vs

Actual withdrawal 168 Bcf

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 176 Bcf and 180 Bcf for the reporting week that ended January 8. A withdrawal within expectations would be less than the 220 Bcf reported at this time in 2015 but directly in line with the 178 Bcf fiveyear average. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week was for a withdrawal of 154 Bcf to 192 Bcf. This looks to be the largest drawdown of the heating season, but it still would be 42 Bcf less than the withdrawal at this time last year.

CitiGroup Research said that oil could go down to 20 dollars a barrel

North American is losing about 2 Billion dollars a week in Oil and Gas Production

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information: http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dollar20-oil-no-longer-mirage-as-world-confronts-12-year-low/ar-CCrU6z?li=BBnbfcL

Oklahoma hit with 70 quakes with a week

• Experts say that the earth quakes swarm in Oklahoma are due to fracking and are caused by the oil and the gas industry
• The injected water changes the friction of naturally occurring fault lines, uncorking the quakes.
• Oklahoma in 2014 had at least 5,415 earthquakes; 585 of them were magnitude-3 or greater. In comparison, the state had just 109 magnitude-3 quakes in 2013, according to the Oklahoma Geologic Survey.
• State regulators have ordered well companies operating in the area to either scale back or halt injection operations

Interesting news article today…. http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/oklahoma-hit-with-70-quakes-in-a-week/ar-AAguX1B?li=BBnb7Kz

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Working gas in storage was 3,756 Bcf as of Friday, December 25, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 58 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 532 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 448 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,308 Bcf. At 3,756 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated Storage withdrawal of 53 Bcf – 57 Bcf

Versus

Actual 58 Bcf

The US Energy Information Administration is expected to estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 53 Bcf and 57 Bcf for the reporting week that ended December 25, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts. EIA plans to announce its storage report at 10:30 am EDT Thursday. A withdrawal within expectations would be well above the 26-Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2014 but well below the 95-Bcf fiveyear average withdrawal. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week was for a withdrawal of 39 Bcf to 71 Bcf. Last week, EIA reported a 32 Bcf withdrawal, which lowered inventories to 3.846 Tcf, which was 561 Bcf, or about 17%, above the year-ago inventory of 3.253 Tcf, and 411 Bcf, or about 12%, more than the five-year average of 3.403 Tcf. “Regionally, the largest withdrawals are expected from the East and Midwest regions, each of which saw average temperatures drop 7 degrees compared to the previous week to 51 and 40 degrees F respectively,” according to the Weekly Storage Report published by Platts unit Bentek Energy

Working gas in storage was 3,814 Bcf as of Friday, December 18, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 32 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 561 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 411 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,403 Bcf. At 3,814 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

EIA to estimate 22-Bcf storage withdrawal

Vs

Actual was 32 Bcf

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 20 Bcf and 24 Bcf for the reporting week that ended December 18. EIA plans to announce its storage report at 10:30 a.m. EST Thursday. Above-normal temperatures blanketing the eastern half of the US this December prompted most analysts to call for a drawdown of almost 100 Bcf below the five-year average for this week. Withdrawal within expectations would be less than the 52 Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2014 and substantially less than the 121 Bcf five-year average withdrawal, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations call for a withdrawal of 15 Bcf to 30 Bcf. Last week, EIA reported a 34-Bcf withdrawal that decreased inventories to 3.846 Tcf, which was 541 Bcf, or 16.4%, more than the year-ago inventory of 3.305 Tcf, but 322 Bcf, or 9.1%, more than the five-year average of 3.524 Tcf