Natural Gas

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,754 Bcf as of Friday, May 13, 2016, according to EIA estimates.  This represents a net increase of 73 Bcf from the previous week.  Stocks were 791 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 795 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,959 Bcf.  At 2,754 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated 79 Bcf
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Actual 73 Bcf

The US Energy Information Administration will estimate an injection of 79 Bcf to natural gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended May 13, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts.  An injection within expectations would be less than the 98-Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 and also less than the five-year average of a 91-Bcf build, according to EIA data.  This would also mark the second consecutive week of a below-average injection. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week was narrow, calling for an injection of 77 Bcf to 83 Bcf.  An injection within analysts’ expectations of 79 Bcf would grow stocks to 2.760 Tcf, 801 Bcf more than the five-year average and 797 Bcf more than the corresponding week last year.  The below-average build would help reduce the current surplus to the five-year average and to last year’s level by 12 Bcf and 19 Bcf, respectively.

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,557 Bcf as of Friday, April 22, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 73 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 870 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 832 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,725 Bcf. At 2,557 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range

Estimated 70 Bcf.

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Actual 73 Bcf.

After two weeks of the US Energy Information Administration’s gas storage estimates coming in well below the five-year average injection, analysts expect the next one to be the biggest build of the year. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects that EIA will estimate an injection of 70 Bcf to gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended April 22.The agency plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT (15:30 GMT) Thursday. An injection within expectations would be less than the 84 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 but more than the five-year average of a 52 Bcf build, according to EIA data. Predictions were all over the board as the wider range of analysts’ expectations called for an injection of 55 Bcf to 81 Bcf. An injection within analysts’ expectations of 70 Bcf would grow stocks to 2.554 Tcf, a surplus of 829 Bcf relative to the five-year average. It would be the biggest build since an 81 Bcf injection was posted for the week ended October 16. The expected injection marks the first week of the year when a build is expected to have occurred in all five of the EIA’s storage regions.

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report. Working gas in storage was 2,484 Bcf as of Friday, April 15, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 7 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 881 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 811 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,673 Bcf. At 2,484 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

EIA estimate storage injection of 2 Bcf
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Actual injections 7 Bcf

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate an injection of 2 Bcf to natural gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended April 15. EIA is scheduled to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EDT (1530 GMT) Thursday. An injection within expectations would be much less than the 82 Bcf injection reported at this time in 2015 and less than the five-year average of a 45 Bcf injection, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week called for a withdrawal of 2 Bcf to an injection of 8 Bcf. Last week, EIA reported a 3 Bcf withdrawal that decreased inventories to 2.477 Tcf, which was 62.9% more than the year-ago inventory of 1.472 Tcf, and 52.1% more than the five-year average of 1.628 Tcf.

When a monopoly (energy Utility) wants to spend money, it normally follows a three step process:

1. Submit details of cost expenditures and the corresponding consumer benefits
2. Get approval from the state regulator; this requires public hearings
3. After the monies were spent on what was approved, demonstrate the benefits were delivered

Think about that; the utility makes the case to spend money offering benefits such as improved reliability (less costs on emergency repairs) or lower costs of operation. Then once completed, the benefits must come; otherwise, they don’t get to recover their costs.

The utilities have to make reasonable and prudent recommendations. The regulators must carefully consider the costs and benefits. Once approved, the utilities must get the construction installed at the price quoted. After it’s constructed the utility must demonstrate the benefits.

Any short cut to this process and more than likely the consumer pays for it.

Many utilities (and utility regulators) are realizing that much of the installed pipelines are approaching their end of life. This will require digging them up and replacing them. Very expensive. So utilities and their regulators are proposing ways to reduce these costs.

However, regulators should not reduce their oversight. Too often lapses in regulatory oversight leads to costs overruns and shortcuts which all but eliminate benefits to consumers.

The following article is a great example of how a monopoly gas utility in Kansas and their regulators are dealing with it. It is very representative of the process occurring in every state.

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://cjonline.com/news/business/2016-04-02/kcc-considering-accelerated-gas-pipeline-replacement-program

Working gas in storage was 2,468 Bcf as of Friday, March 25, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 25 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 1,002 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 843 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,625 Bcf. At 2,468 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated withdrawal is between 20 Bcf and 24 Bcf

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Actual withdrawal 25 Bcf

Analysts predict net withdrawal while this week’s storage report is expected to be a reversal from last, as a net withdrawal is the expectation of analysts for the week ended March 25. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects that the EIA will estimate a withdrawal of between 20 Bcf and 24 Bcf for the reporting week that ended March 25. A withdrawal within expectations would be more than the 10 Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and directly in line with the 22 Bcf five-year average pull, according to EIA data. A withdrawal of more than 22 Bcf would mark only the second time this year that the pull was larger than both the five-year average and last year’s withdrawal in the corresponding week. The last time it occurred was for the week that ended January 22

Here is this weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,493 Bcf as of Friday, March 18, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 15 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 1,017 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 846 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,647 Bcf. At 2,493 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated withdrawal now became an early inject Estimated of 18 Bcf

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Actual Injection 15 Bcf

The US will likely enter injection season with a titanic 1 Tcf more gas remaining in storage than this time last year. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate an injection of gas into storage between 18 Bcf and 22 Bcf for the reporting week that ended March 18. An injection within expectations would compare with the 4 Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and also more than the 24 Bcf five-year average withdrawal, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week called for an injection of 14 Bcf to 25 Bcf. This marks the first net injection of the year and the de facto end of heating season. “We might get another small withdrawal with cold hitting the Midwest and the large market of Chicago coming up, but for all intents and purposes the winter is over,” said storage analyst Stephen Schork in an interview Wednesday morning.

This weeks’ EIA natural gas storage report.  Working gas in storage was 2,479 Bcf as of Friday, March 4, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 57 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 911 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 727 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,752 Bcf. At 2,479 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Estimated Storage withdrawal between 55 Bcf and 59 Bcf

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Actual 57 Bcf

Storage rocketing to end-of-season high Analysts are predicting yet another bearish withdrawal from gas in underground storage, which all but ensures stocks will peak at an alltime high when entering injection season later this month. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a gas storage withdrawal of between 55 Bcf and 59 Bcf for the reporting week that ended March 4 A withdrawal within expectations would be substantially less than the 174-Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and less than the 118-Bcf five-year average withdrawal, according to EIA data.

Ameren Gas customers have NOT benefited from the $37 Billion dollars that Illinois customers have saved since Illinois Customer Choice began. http://realgyenergyservices.com/competition-work-tune-37-billion/

However the Illinois Commerce Commission could decide that soon enough.

Every other utility in Illinois has implemented Illinois Customer Choice EXCEPT for Ameren Gas customers. Why is that? In a word, cost.

Ameren Gas said it would cost too much. Given the savings that could result, isn’t it worth it!

So the ICC has ceased taking comments and will decide what to do next.

Three possible scenarios are thought possible:

1. The proverbial; nothing.
2. Order Ameren Gas to implement Illinois Customer Choice and allow its customers to have a choice from the utility default service
3. Order a committee to study it further

Realgy support Illinois Customer Choice in that every gas customer should have a choice other than default service and share in the $37 billion in savings (and growing).

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://www.energychoicematters.com/stories/20160225c.html

Working gas in storage was 2,584 Bcf as of Friday, February 19, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 117 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 615 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 577 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,007 Bcf. At 2,584 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

EIA estimate 146 Bcf withdrawal

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Actual 117 Bcf

A consensus of analysts surveyed by Platts expects the US Energy Information Administration will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 144 Bcf and 148 Bcf for the reporting week that ended February 19. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EST (1530 GMT) Thursday. A withdrawal within expectations would be less than the 205 Bcf withdrawal reported at this time in 2015 and in line with the 144 Bcf five-year average withdrawal, according to EIA data. The wider range of analysts’ expectations for this week called for a withdrawal of 131 Bcf to 162 Bcf

If you recall President Nixon’s infamous quote…. I am reminded of it when WEC Energy denies any culpability in Peoples Gas ‘misinformation’ case.

As life goes in a circle, let’s recall the other adage of that time…follow the money, so lets.

In 2014              Illinois Commerce Commission approved $4,600,000,000 ($4.6 billion) for Peoples Gas to replace gas mains.

June 24, 2015  WEC Energy buys Peoples Gas for $9,100,000,000 ($9.1 billion)

July 7, 2015      Peoples Gas updates its estimate for gas main replacement to $8,200,000,000 ($8.2 billion)

So NO one in Peoples Gas was aware that the gas main replacement, the largest project Peoples has undertaking in some time, was costing X2 what it was approved to spend. Yet, about 2 weeks later they had detailed information of what those costs were and asked the ICC for approval to spend it.

The Attorney General’s Office is investigating Peoples Gas executives for what they knew and when they knew it……as I said the circle goes round and round.

Recall: Peoples as a regulated monopoly can only earn money when it spends on expenses approved by the ICC. If they are not approved by the ICC, Peoples gas runs the risk of having to have their investors pay for it.

Realgy Energy Services is a registered Retail Energy Marketer in the states of Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. We offer Service Plans that will provide electric and natural gas at wholesale pricing direct to customers without any utility markup. Our Service Plans work with the local utility to provide seamless service and annual energy savings. Service Plans include Guaranteed Savings^TM, ManagedPrice^TM, ManagedGreen^TM and Index, Fixed pricing.

Additional Information:

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2016/02/22/wec-energy-denies-any-culpability-in-peoples-gas.html